Sensitive days in turkey
The situation in Turkey, especially in the field of economy, is in the focus of attention of regional analysts these days and the outlook for the future of this country is almost pessimistic, but how close can these perceptions be considered and are there any ways for Turkey to cross these difficult necks?
In relation to the current situation in Turkey, we must first look at the peak of the country’s economy in the early 21st century, from 2001 to at least 2015, when the country, thanks to a balanced foreign policy based on interaction, promoting successful tourism programs and The country experienced a major leap forward in becoming a serialization hub for regional television networks.
Turkey also experienced 6% economic growth during these years and was becoming a successful model of economic development, at least for the region, and had begun its golden age.
It became a source of exports for many countries in the region, from Russia to Saudi Arabia and Iran; From clothing to food and even gradually entering large-scale investment projects in the region, and of course Ankara’s view of the Black Continent should not be overlooked.
Some believe that these progressive policies are the result of calculated plans and precise calculations, and some believe that they are the result of special regional conditions, following the emergence of Arab movements and various tensions, such as the region’s conflict with terrorism from Lebanon and Syria. As far as Iraq is known, it became the monopoly of some areas for Turkey, but the question that is more important here is, what factors caused this process to stop and sometimes even retreat?
In connection with the reasons for the slowdown in Turkey’s economic growth and even its reduction from 6 to slightly more than 5 in 2020, various causes and factors are listed, so that;
– Some consider the dictatorial policies from mid-2015 onwards as the cause of the slowdown in the Turkish economy; According to this view, some policies, such as manipulating the interest rate and the dollar against the lira, have been considered to have a significant impact on Turkey’s economic growth, and they believe that this has led to a slowdown in economic growth. To the extent that the parity rate has more than tripled since 2016; That is, each dollar has risen from 3 lira to 8.9 lira.
To prevent a downward trend, the Turkish government even put on the agenda a plan to sell property and land to foreigners, which was accompanied by special privileges such as the granting of citizenship; A tempting plan for many citizens of Turkey’s neighboring countries, which was welcomed, but the final figure, which the Turkish government has not yet announced, could not be something that has filled the economic gaps.
– Some consider the corona pandemic as a factor in changing the forward economic trend of Turkey;
It cannot be ignored that Corona has dealt a severe blow to the economy not only to Turkey but to the whole world, and in this respect Turkey may have suffered more severe damage.
The country, which earned nearly $ 30 billion from tourism in 2018, was able to set a record in this field in 2019 by attracting about 50 million tourists and become the third tourism hub in the world, so that if the revenue The output of each foreign tourist is estimated at about $ 1,000, a figure of over $ 50 billion.
The Turks had projected and planned $ 100 billion in tourism revenue for 2023.
But Corona shattered all forecasts and plans, with Turkey ‘s tourism revenue falling by 65% in 2020, and perhaps the biggest impact on Turkish economic growth was seen in the fall of the lira against the US dollar. , had.
– Some believe that the role of family members and others in decision-making centers has been the cause of this downward trend; Usually in all societies, the presence and role of the people around and the family in the rulers has had its destructive effects and is not related to today or yesterday and does not know geography. Of course, the extent to which this factor has affected policies, decisions and the damage done to the Turkish economy can not be judged with certainty, but it can not be completely ruled out. Some see the role of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s entourage, including his daughter and son-in-law, as effective, yet these judgments require credible evidence.
– Corruption has penetrated into government agencies; Corruption in government institutions in Turkey is something that can not be ignored, an issue that has existed for a long time and still exists, but that the Erdogan government could not or did not want to involve the country’s monetary and financial institutions with this corruption. To collide is another matter.
But what is assumed is that corruption has played a decisive role in economic failures and in hindering economic growth. In just one paragraph, there are reports of major oil deals between ISIL and some other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2018, which have certainly contaminated the flow of money earned in Turkey.
– However, Turkey’s economic institution was so strong that the above could not affect the country’s economic growth; It might have slowed or even stopped the growth process, but going back and down even one step seems strange.
Another reason given for the current situation in Turkey is Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s geopolitical policies at the regional level and his risky games on the red lines of international powers.
Turkey’s entry into the Syrian internal crisis in 2011 came at a time when Syria was one of Turkey’s most important trading partners and the Damascus market was almost dominated by Turkish traders.
There was. Political relations were also at the highest level, and the Syrians jokingly said that Assad and Erdogan would have breakfast in Ankara in the morning and dinner in Damascus!
Erdogan’s extraversion policy, however, did not end in Syria, and covered a wide area from Libya to Afghanistan as well as the eastern Mediterranean. From 2018, the cost of the war in Libya was added to the cost of Syria, because the transfer of mercenaries from Syria to Libya was spent on the war against Caliph Haftar, and of course this was repeated in 2020 during the war between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia. شد.
Other geopolitical tensions, including with Greece and France in the Mediterranean, should be added to the Turkish government’s budget, as it is one of the largest exporters of textiles, automobiles, grain, summer crops and by 2019. Car spare parts went to EU member states, which should have generated at least $ 70 billion to $ 80 billion in revenue.
In addition to Turkey’s entry and presence in the equations of the region, the costs of this country in the game of powers must also be added; Erdogan’s turn to Russia ruined the former ally of the United States and most European countries.
The American threat to buy modern weapons from Russia, such as the S400 system and Sukhoi fighters by the Erdogan government, has fueled pessimism in the West.
Turkey is now happy with the gas resources in the Mediterranean and the gas pipelines that it is supposed to take from Russia and export to Europe, in a word, to become the region’s “energy hub”; But some of these aspirations are currently on paper.
In contrast, the situation now for Turkey is different from 2014 and 2015. The same cities where terrorist groups gathered and transit cities for these groups and their volunteers have become a nuisance these days.
The Syrian refugees, who had been at war with Assad for years with the encouragement of Ankara, have started their own businesses in many border cities, and even in Istanbul and Ankara, after years of displacement.
The presence of these displaced people has now become an excuse and a place to vent the anger of Turkish citizens who think that the economic situation is due to their presence in their economy and society, and basically the extroverted policies of the government.
Sensitivities have risen so high that even a picture and video of a displaced Syrian citizen eating a banana can spark public outrage in Turkey, with a recent video on social media and media in Turkey showing a banana eating The young woman pointed to a Syrian, followed by a protest from a Turkish citizen who shouted, “Why can’t I eat bananas and buy a kilo?”
There are reports of numerous clashes in various Turkish cities with Syrian refugees who entered into a stupid conflict with the Syrian government, mostly unintentionally or at the instigation of others; From street fights to lawsuit cases!
Thus, a series of factors have caused the Turkish economy to not have a good day today with the fall of the lira, which seems to be the most important factor, the expansion of the playing field in the field of international relations and ruthless games in the region and in foreign relations. Is; Where Turkey could suffer more serious damage in the future; However, there is no denying that Turkey has the capacity to return to the tracks of development and economic growth, if its decision-makers look more closely at the map of developments in the region.
Source: IRNA
